McKinsey Predicts a Major Shift in Global Automotive Power

By 2030, several Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers could join — or expand their presence within — the world’s top ten automakers, marking one of the most significant shifts in the modern automotive industry. According to forecasts published by consulting firm McKinsey, and reported by SCMP, China’s rapid EV growth, expanding exports, and technological leadership are reshaping the competitive landscape at unprecedented speed.

Introduction

The global automotive industry is undergoing a historic transformation driven by electrification, digitalization, and production scale. China, already the world’s largest car market, is emerging as the dominant force in EV production and sales. McKinsey senior partner Guan Mingyu notes that early signs of large-scale structural change are now clearly visible, with Chinese brands accelerating faster than legacy manufacturers anticipated.

Chinese Automakers Already Rising in Global Rankings

Two Chinese giants — BYD and Geely Holding Group (owner of Volvo Cars) — have already entered the global top 10 automakers by sales. Other state-owned companies, including SAIC, FAW, and Changan, remain close behind.

Meanwhile, newer players in China’s intelligent EV sector, such as:

• Xiaomi Auto,

• Xpeng,

• Leapmotor,

have posted rapid sales growth and are quickly eating into Tesla’s market share in China, proving their ability to compete with established EV leaders.

Sales Figures and Global Expansion

According to GlobalData:

• BYD delivered 4.27 million vehicles last year.

• Geely delivered 3.34 million vehicles.

Most of these sales came from the domestic Chinese market, but this is changing rapidly. BYD expects exports to rise to 20% of total sales in 2025, with plans to deliver up to 1 million vehicles outside mainland China.

Other key points:

• BYD now leads the global EV market, outperforming Tesla.

• BYD has also led the Ukrainian car market for two consecutive months.

China’s Dominance in EV Technology and Production

China holds a commanding position in the global EV industry:

• 30%+ of global auto production

• 60%+ of global EV sales

• 70%+ of global EV battery production

Battery giants CATL and BYD remain market leaders, supplying not only Chinese automakers but also major global brands.

Government incentives, strong consumer adoption, and rapid charging-infrastructure expansion continue to fuel this leadership.

Export Growth and Profitability Challenges

Between January and October 2025, China exported 5.62 million vehicles, an increase of 15.7% year-over-year.
Despite expectations of slower growth, exports will continue rising as manufacturers turn to overseas markets for stability and higher margins.

Analysts note:

• Less than 10% of Chinese EV brands will become profitable domestically in the next five years due to price wars and overcapacity.

• Overseas markets offer margins four times higher than China’s highly competitive retail prices.

To strengthen global influence, Chinese automakers must boost international sales and secure overseas production footprints, as seen in recent factory announcements in Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

Conclusion

If current trends persist, several Chinese EV manufacturers could become global top ten automakers by 2030, reshaping the competitive hierarchy of the industry. With strong domestic momentum, expanding export strategies, and leadership in EV batteries and technology, China is positioned to dominate the next era of global automotive innovation.

FAQ (H3)

Which Chinese automakers are most likely to enter the global top 10 by 2030?

Brands such as BYD, Geely, SAIC, Changan, Xpeng, Leapmotor, and Xiaomi Auto are seen as the strongest candidates.

How many cars did BYD and Geely sell last year?

BYD sold 4.27 million, while Geely sold 3.34 million vehicles.

Why are Chinese EV companies expanding overseas?

International markets offer higher profit margins, reduced competitive pressure, and greater long-term growth potential.